US Dollar, S&P 500 Continue to Stall as Crude Oil Sinks Past Support

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar and S&P 500 continue to flirt with familiar technical levels while crude oil has produced a sharp reversal to the downside.

S&P 500 – Prices are retesting the previously broken top of a rising channel set from early June (1457.00) as support. A break to the downside targets the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 1439.60. Near-term resistance lines up at 1481.00, the 61.8% Fib, with a push above that exposing the 1500 figure and the 76.4% level at 1532.20.

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CRUDE OIL – Prices broke through support at the bottom of a rising channel carved out since early July to challenge the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 91.56. Continued selling below this boundary targets the 50% level at 88.83. The channel bottom – now at 94.54 – has been recast as resistance. A push back above that aims to challenge a falling trend line set from late February at 99.51.

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GOLD – Prices took out resistance at a falling trend line connecting major swing highs since early November 2011, hinting at bullish continuation ahead. Near-term resistance is at 1790.55, with a break above that targeting 1802.80. The trend line – now at 1757.24 – has been recast as support. A push back below that boundary sees initial downside barriers at 1742.44 and 1719.72, the 14.6% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracements respectively.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR – Prices turned lower from support-turned-resistance at 9823, the April 27 closing low, with sellers now aiming to challenge the bottom of a falling channel set from the early-June swing high (9752). A break below that targets the February 7 close at 9681. Alternatively, a break above resistance exposes 9893.