Commodity Chart Of The Day: Crude Oil

10:19 |




 Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.     
         
                                     Five out of the last 6 sessions, crude oil has traded higher. As of this post, April futures are $4 off their lows from last week. Prices are currently above their 18 day MA -- identified by the, To be continue CLICK FOLLOWING,,, http://seekingalpha.com/article/1266391-commodity-chart-of-the-day-crude-oil?source=yahoo 
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Dollar down; triple-dip recession fears sink pound

10:13 |

By William L. Watts and Carla Mozee, MarketWatch
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — The dollar slipped versus most major rivals Tuesday, while the British pound tumbled after dismal U.K. industrial production figures underlined fears of a triple-dip recession.
The ICE dollar index DXY -0.06% moved to 82.566 in recent trade, down from 82.601 in late North American action on Monday. It had posted gains earlier Tuesday, reaching as high as 82.791.
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Cross Assets Analysis Suggests That A Weaker EUR/USD Is A Done Deal

08:31 |

The disconnect suggests that the EUR/USD should be around 1.28. The problem is, gold already sent several wrong signal in October and December 2012.
Any negative feelings on the EUR/USD should be accompanied by a similar vision (bearish) on the S&P 500. The correlation is good, as can be seen in the chart below, and the disconnect is only recent and limited.

Continue read ... click follwing http://seekingalpha.com/article/1206361-cross-assets-analysis-suggests-that-a-weaker-eur-usd-is-a-done-deal?source=yahoo
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G20 exchange rate policies need to be better aligned: U.S. official

05:31 |

MOSCOW (Reuters) - There is better understanding among Group of 20 nations that the foreign exchange rate systems of the world's largest economies need to be better aligned, a senior U.S. administration official said on Saturday after G20 finance leaders met in Moscow.
While the Group of Seven industrialized countries - the United States, Britain, Italy, Germany, Japan, France and Canada - have long-standing rules on exchange rates, the newer G20 of emerging and advanced economies, including China, India and Brazil, is still trying to develop a set of common standards, the official said.
The G20 meeting committed to move more rapidly toward more market exchange rate systems and to refrain from competitive devaluation.
The wording of the final statement was closely followed given concerns that Japan is targeting a weaker yen in its aggressive expansive monetary and fiscal policies, which have driven down its currency.
G20 currency tensions are not new. The United States has long pressed China to reform its exchange rate regime by allowing market forces to play a larger role in managing the economy.
The U.S. administration official said G20 discussions were focused more on currency frameworks than on a particular country's policies.
Meanwhile, the official said the United States was on target to meet a pledge by advanced economies at the G20 in Toronto in 2010 to halve their budget deficits by 2013. With the pact set to expire this year, some countries like Germany want the G20 to set new debt-cutting targets.
The U.S. official said the Moscow meeting wanted to avoid any commitment that there is a one-size-fits-all pace of fiscal consolidation. However, the official said the United States was comfortable with the way the fiscal consolidation effort was being discussed by the G20.
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Yen Falls 2nd Day as Abe Urges BOJ on Inflation Target

23:12 |


The yen weakened for a second day and neared a 2 1/2 year-low against the dollar after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe urged Bank of Japan (8301) Governor Masaaki Shirakawa to double the central bank’s inflation goal.
Shirakawa said yesterday the BOJ was in close cooperation with the government, raising speculation policy makers will boost stimulus when they meet Jan. 21-22. Japan’s currency slid against all of its major peers before data forecast to show the nation’s trade deficit widened. The euro remained lower before the European Central Bank meets today CONTINUE READ CLICK, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-09/yen-weakens-for-second-day-as-abe-urges-boj-on-inflation-target.html?cmpid=yhoo 
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Shenhua Energy Leads China Coal Stocks Lower as Equities Swing

23:05 |


Chinese stocks swung between gains and losses as declines by energy companies overshadowed gains by industrial companies.
China Shenhua Energy Co. and China Coal Energy Co. led coal producers lower. China Cosco Holdings Co. (601919), the world’s largest operator of dry-bulk ships, advanced 1.8 percent as better-than- estimated export data raised speculation demand for marine transport will rise.... CONTINUE READ, CLICK http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-10/china-s-stock-futures-rise-before-trade-data-baoshan-may-gain.html?cmpid=yhoo
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Noble to Lift Aspire Stake to Increase Mongolia Coal Shipments

22:59 |


Noble Group Ltd. (NOBL), Asia’s biggest listed commodity supplier, agreed to boost its stake inAspire Mining Ltd. (AKM) and to help fund the explorer’s railway in northern Mongolia as seeks to expand coal shipments from the nation.
The Hong Kong-based trader will pay A$2.8 million ($2.9 million), or 8 cents a share, to increase its holding to 15 percent from 10 percent, Perth-based Aspire said today in a statement. Noble will also pay 10 percent of pre-development costs for a railway that will link Aspire’s coal mine to the existing Trans-Mongolian rail line, Aspire said.... CONTINUE READ,CLICK http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-10/noble-to-lift-aspire-stake-to-increase-mongolia-coal-shipments.html?cmpid=yhoo
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FOREX-Yen near 2-1/2-year low, Aussie up on strong China data

22:49 |


* BOJ easing expectations keep hammering yen

* Some market players wary of correction in yen

China Dec exports up 14.1%, boosts Aussie/yen to 4-yr high

* Euro near 3-week low, ECB seen holding rates steady

* Yen down 0.3%, euro falls 0.2%, Aussie up 0.3% vs USD

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, Jan 10 (Reuters) - The yen was on the defensive near a 2-1/2-year low on Thursday on expectations the Bank of Japan will take fresh measures to boost the economy, while the Australian dollar jumped after stronger-than-expected Chinese trade data.

The euro dipped as traders looked to the European Central Bank's policy meeting later in the day to see a rate cut is in the offing.

The yen lost 0.3 percent to 88.15 yen to the dollar, edging near a 2-1/2-year low of 88.48 yen hit last Friday, and giving up most of its gains earlier this week.

"I just see a tremendous amount of pressure on the yen at the moment. If the previous low is broken, then the next target will be 90," said a trader at a Japanese bank.

Price action could become volatile as the BOJ's Jan. 21-22 policy meeting nears, as seen in the yen's roughly 1.2 percent rebound from that low earlier this week.

"It's about time for a correction to set in after a big fall in the yen. Short-term players will likely take profits as soon as the yen stops falling," said Teppei Ino, currency strategist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

"But then again, there's also chance that expectations of BOJ easing could keep the yen under pressure until the bank's policy meeting," he added.

The bank is widely expected to heed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's call for adopting a 2 percent inflation target at its next policy meeting.

Expectations that Abe would push the BOJ to adopt more forceful monetary stimulus measures have driven the yen sharply lower in recent months, boosting the dollar by nearly 12 percent against the yen since early November.

The yen extended its losses against the Australian dollar to hit a four-year low, as the Aussie jumped following a surprisingly strong Chinese trade data. Australia tends to benefit from Chinese demand for raw materials.

The Australian dollar rose to as high as 93.03 yen , its highest since Sept 2008, after data showed Chinese December exports grew 14.1 percent from a year earlier, more than triple the economists' forecast in December. Imports growth was double the market expectations.

Against the U.S. dollar, the Aussie gained 0.3 percent to $1.0540, having hit a three-week high of $1.0554 at one point.


RATE CUT TALK?

Further signs of recovery in China failed to lift the risk-sensitive euro, as traders focused on the ECB meeting.

The central bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold at its first policy meeting of the year on Thursday, but some market players think the bank may cut them some time in coming months and that the bank's chief, Mario Draghi, may drop hints of that in his news conference at 1330 GMT.

"The market has already priced in some chance of Draghi hinting at a rate cut down the road. So if he doesn't, the euro could be bought back," said the Japanese bank trader.

The euro fell 0.2 percent so far on Thursday to $1.3043 , edging closer to a three-week low of $1.2998 hit last Friday.

The British pound was also listless near a six-week low against the dollar hit on Wednesday partly on speculation the Bank of England could go for a surprise easing at its meeting on Thursday, although most analysts expect the bank to stand pat.

The pound dipped 0.1 percent to $1.6010, near Wednesday's low of $1.5992. Sterling has been hit by a string of weak UK economic data, including Tuesday's retail sales data.
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Asian Stocks Advance on China Trade as Yen Weakens; Crude Gains

22:42 | ,


Asian stocks rose to a 17-month high after China’s exports grew more than estimated and investors speculated Japan will expand stimulus. Commodities advanced, while the yen neared a 2 ½-year low against the dollar.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) climbed 0.8 percent at 2:39 p.m. in Tokyo. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.3 percent. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 0.8 percent as the yen weakened against all its major peers. The euro retreated 0.2 percent versus the greenback before the European Central Bank meets to review borrowing costs today. Crude advanced 0.4 percent in New York and aluminum rose for a fourth day. Yuan forwards strengthened the most in a year.
Pedestrians walk past the Bank of Japan headquarters in Tokyo, Japan. Photographer: Akio Kon/Bloomberg
China’s overseas sales rose 14.1 percent in December from a year earlier, almost triple the 5 percent gain predicted in a Bloomberg analyst survey, data showed today. Bank of JapanGovernor Masaaki Shirakawa said yesterday the central bank was in close cooperation with the government, spurring speculation policy makers will boost asset purchases when they meet Jan. 21-22. The ECB will probably keep its main refinancing rate at a record-low 0.75 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey.
“The Chinese data is a whole lot better than anyone expected,” said Mike Jones, a currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand in Wellington. “That will only add to recent investor optimism that the Chinese rebound has got legs.”
More than two stocks rose for each that fell on MSCI’s Asian gauge, with technology and financial companies leading the advance. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) climbed 0.9 percent to its highest level since June 2011, while the Shanghai Composite Index added 0.5 percent. The Philippine Stock Exchange Index lost 1 percent, retreating from a record.

Mazda Upgrade

Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. jumped 8.9 percent in Hong Kong, heading for its biggest advance since October 2011. Mazda Motor Corp. (7261) rallied 10 percent, leading gains among Japanese automakers, after Bank of America raised its rating on the stock to buy. Korea Electric Power Corp., which supplies all of South Korea’s electricity, rose 3.8 percent in Seoul trading after increasing power tariffs.
The S&P 500 advanced 0.3 percent yesterday. Fourth-quarter profit at companies in the index probably increased 2.9 percent, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg, extending a three-year expansion while marking the second-slowest quarterly growth since 2009.
The Japanese currency weakened 0.3 percent to 88.16 per dollar from yesterday, when it slid 0.9 percent, after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe urged the BOJ to double its inflation goal. The yen touched 88.41 on Jan. 4, the lowest level since July 2010. The yen declined 0.2 percent to 114.98 per euro, while the 17-nation shared currency lost 0.2 percent to $1.3041.

‘Economic Recovery’

“The Japanese government’s economic policy can prompt a sustained improvement in investor sentiment by weakening the yen before the recovery in the U.S. economy becomes definite,” said Naoki Kamiyama, an equity strategist at Bank of America Corp. in Tokyo. “It is a way to engineer an economic recovery.”
The Australian dollar climbed 0.4 percent to $1.0552 after touching $1.0555, its strongest since Dec. 18. Twelve-month yuan forwards strengthened 0.4 percent to 6.2763 per dollar in Hong Kong, the biggest gain since Jan. 18, 2012. The spot rate was 0.05 percent higher at 6.2228 in Shanghai, near a 19-year high of 6.2216 reached yesterday.
Chinese imports grew 6 percent after being unchanged in the previous month. The trade surplus almost doubled from a year earlier to $31.6 billion. The U.S. replaced the European Union last year as China’s largest export market, Zheng Yuesheng, head of customs statistics, said at a briefing today.

Treasuries Slide

Thirty-year Treasuries have almost wiped out 2012’s returns as investors prepared to bid at today’s $13 billion auction of the securities. U.S. 30-year bonds have handed investors a 2.3 percent loss in January as of yesterday, eroding last year’s 2.5 percent gain, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. Thirty-year yields rose 0.2 basis points to 3.08 percent today.
Crude futures rose to $93.52 a barrel from $93.10 in New York. Copper for delivery in three months advanced 0.3 percent to $8,105.25 a metric ton in London, while aluminum added 0.7 percent to $2,090 a ton. Lead and zinc gained 0.7 percent.
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Soft Commodity Quarterly Report: Cocoa, Coffee, Sugar Decline While Cotton Holds Steady Near Lows

00:27 |


by Edward Faubert
We examine performance of the major soft commodities during the fourth quarter of 2012.
Despite a year of more quantitative easing, soft commodity markets slump amid newfound surpluses.
Coffee
Coffee prices as measured by the ICE futures contract (KC) finished the fourth quarter at $1.438 a pound, down 38 cents, or 21 percent, on the quarter (down 78 cents or 35 percent for all of 2012). The market has been in an almost continuous slide since May 2011, when prices peaked at just over $3.00 a pound.
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EUR/USD Lacks Stimulus: Earnings, Fed Speeches And ECB Eyed

00:25 |

With the year-end market euphoria slowly but steadilyy losing its momentum, the European shared currency approaches the London session in apparent tranquility at USD 1.3070. The Japanese Yen topped the climbers board vs. G10 currencies on Tuesday, which continued to strengthen on profit taking, followed by the U.S. dollar. CONTINUE READING CLICK http://seekingalpha.com/article/1101871-eur-usd-lacks-stimulus-earnings-fed-speeches-and-ecb-eyed?source=yahoo
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Oil down after dour Europe jobless report

22:09 |


BANGKOK (AP) -- The price of oil fell below $93 Wednesday after unemployment in the countries that use the euro rose to its highest level since the single currency was founded.
Benchmark oil for February delivery was down 19 cents to $92.96 per barrel at midday Bangkok time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 4 cents to 
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Forex: Dollar Awaits Clear Risk Bearing, EUR/USD Eyes 1.3000

22:02 |


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Canadian Dollar Falls First Time in 3 Days as Risk Demand Ebbs

12:28 |


The Canadian dollar fell against its U.S. counterpart for the first time in three days as global risk appetite declined.
The currency erased gains from earlier today as stocks declined and futures on crude oil, the nation’s largest export, slipped. A report tomorrow is projected to show housing starts slowed in December, which may indicate the country’s real estate market is headed for a soft landing...
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Brazil sugar, ethanol exports at peaks - ISO

10:41 |


* Brazil record sugar exports for any month was October 2012
* Brazilian ethanol exports in 2012 exceeded 2011, 2010
* Increased U.S. demand for ethanol boosted exports
By David Brough
LONDON, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Brazilian sugar exports in December reached a record for the month after dry weather aided harvesting, adding to a global supply glut, the London-based International Sugar Organization (ISO) said on Tuesday.
To be continue Read... Click follwing link
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Aviva offers Delta Lloyd stake at 12.15-12.65 euros/shr -sources

10:30 |


Jan 8 (Reuters) - Aviva Plc is offering its remaining stake in Dutch insurer Delta Lloyd at a price range of 12.15 euros to 12.65 euros per share, two sources familiar with the matter said.
Aviva said earlier on Tuesday it planned to sell as many as 34.3 million shares in Delta Lloyd via an accelerated bookbuild.
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Precision Castparts completes Titanium Metals deal

09:04 |

PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) -- Precision Castparts Corp. said Tuesday that it has completed its acquisition of Titanium Metals Corp. for roughly $2.9 billion.
The deal, first announced in November, gives Precision a titanium capability that it said has always been a key missing piece from its product portfolio.
To be continued,click the follwoing link
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/precision-castparts-completes-titanium-metals-163700560.html
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Euro falls to fresh session low against the dollar

08:14 |

Jan 8 (Reuters) - The euro fell to a fresh session low against the dollar on Tuesday as investors positioned for the European Central Bank to keep rates on hold when they meet on Thursday.
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/08/markets-forex-idUSL1E9C85JK20130108?feedType=RSS&feedName=marketsNews&rpc=43
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Forex Trading: Long EURUSD at 13070

07:53 |

The EURUSD bullish break in early December remains valid as long as price is above 12875. Although price failed to reach the trendline that extends off of the 2012 lows, a flat interpretation of price pattern from the December high is valid. An RSI reversal signal is evident on the daily as well (RSI above 40 but lower than where RSI was at the previous pivot). With this in....... To be continue , click
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/forex-trading-long-eurusd-13070-145700415.html
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Early Glance: Silver companies

07:40 |


NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of some top silver companies are mixed at 10 a.m.:
Hecla Mining Co. fell $.08 or 1.4 percent, to $5.55.
Pan American Silver Corp. fell $.21 or 1.1 percent, to $18.22.
Silver Standard Resources Inc. rose $.22 or 1.5 percent, to $14.75.
Silver Wheaton fell $.29 or .8 percent, to $34.31.
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Alcoa Profit Seen Recovering on Aluminum Price Gains

07:31 |

Alcoa Inc. (AA), the largest U.S. aluminum producer, is set to record the strongest annual earnings growth in three years as the price of the commodity rebounds and after the company closed its most inefficient smelters. To be continue http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-08/alcoa-profit-seen-recovering-after-output-cuts-as-aluminum-gains.html?cmpid=yhoo
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U.S. natural gas futures slip early as milder weather arrives

07:05 |


NEW YORK, Jan 8 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures lost
ground early on Tuesday, as mild near-term weather and record
high supplies pressured the complex for a second straight day.
    With government data on Monday showing gas production in
October hit a record high and inventories still at record highs
for this time of year, many traders expect prices to remain on

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/08/markets-nymex-natgas-idUSL1E9C83HQ20130108?feedType=RSS&feedName=financialsSector&rpc=43
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U.S. Stocks Slip as Earnings Season Begins; Yen, Gold Up

06:55 |


U.S. stocks retreated for a second day as investors awaited fourth-quarter earnings reports, while European shares pared earlier gains triggered after economic confidence grew more than forecast. The yen and gold advanced.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.1 percent.... To be continue.. click following http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-08/yen-strengthens-as-gold-rebounds-most-asian-equities-decline.html?cmpid=yhoo
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Eurozone unemployment at record high

05:53 |


Businesses in the eurozone may be feeling more confident but there's no sign of that translating into better employment prospects yet.
Eurostat data published Tuesday showed unemployment in the 17-nation eurozone hit a record high of 11.8% in November, leaving 18.8 million people without work - two million more than a year ago.
At nearly 27%, Spain has the highest unemployment rate in the European Union,
To continue Reading, visit as
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UPDATE 2-Iraqi Kurdistan starts independent crude oil exports

05:48 |


Tue Jan 8, 2013 7:01am EST

* First crude from Taq Taq oilfield reaches Turkish port

* Fresh tender for Kurdish condensate imminent

* KRG says crude trade through Turkey likely to continue

* KRG oil exports via Baghdad-controlled pipeline halted

By Julia Payne and Peg Mackey

LONDON, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Kurdistan has begun to export crude oil directly to world markets through Turkey, posing the biggest challenge yet to Baghdad's claim to full control over Iraqi oil.

The export of crude, in addition to small volumes of niche condensate, demonstrates the autonomous region's growing frustration with Baghdad as it moves towards ever greater economic independence, industry sources said.

Iraqi officials in Baghdad said the trade of Kurdish oil, which they view as illegal, would make it more difficult to reach a deal on payments to oil companies operating in the northern region, which the central government has delayed.

The volume of Kurdish oil involved is small, but industry sources said the direct export is highly symbolic as the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) seeks more financial autonomy.

The first crude has been delivered by truck to the Turkish port of Mersin on the Mediterranean.

"The KRG gave us permission to start crude exports from the Taq Taq oilfield," Genel Energy President Mehmet Sepil said in an interview on Monday.

But Baghdad insists that it has the sole right to export.

"If the Kurdistan Regional Government insists on moving in the wrong direction, even by bartering crude without legal approval, this will worsen the situation and make it more difficult to reach an agreement," a senior Iraqi oil official said.

Oil is at the heart of a deepening rift between Baghdad and Kurdistan that threatens to undermine the country's uneasy federal union just a year after the last American troops left.

The KRG halted exports through the Baghdad-controlled Iraq-Turkey pipeline last month due to the renewed payment dispute.

And a KRG source said the crude trade through Turkey was likely to keep going.

"Crude is a new component in the KRG's ongoing barter deal with Turkey, and it's likely to continue because Baghdad is not paying as agreed, nor is it supplying the KRG with sufficient refined products," the KRG source said.

"So the trade is part of our 17 percent entitlement to refined products, and the contractors will be able to earn their share as well, according to their contracts."

An agreement with Baghdad entitles Kurdistan to 17 percent of oil products refined in Iraq, the KRG source said.


NO OIL EXPORT BREAKTHROUGH

Oil shipments from Kurdistan are unlikely to resume through the federal pipeline system, with Kurdish and Iraqi Arab officials increasingly at odds over oil policy and autonomy, officials and sources said.

Kurdish and Iraqi officials said negotiations to resolve the dispute are at a stalemate and are now overshadowed by growing turmoil between Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and Sunni Muslim rivals, who say he has marginalised their community.

Thousands of protesters have taken to the streets in Sunni Muslim strongholds since December, when demonstrations erupted after security forces arrested bodyguards of Sunni Finance Minister Rafaie al-Esawi.

"No date has been set for a meeting between Kurdish regional officials and Iraqi oil officials to discuss payments and export issues. I think the current political crisis is preventing a date being set for a meeting," another Iraqi oil official said.

The KRG began exporting its own very light oil, or condensate, independently to world markets in October by truck to a Turkish port, where it was sold via an intermediary.

A fresh cargo of condensate is also ready to sell through an imminent tender, a shipping source said.

Industry sources reckon around 15,000 barrels per day (bpd)of condensate from the Khor Mor gas field are reaching the Toros terminal in Turkey. Just added crude oil exports from Taq Taq, for now, are also small.

In exchange, Turkey is sending back refined products to the Kurdish region, which is short of fuel.

Over the past year and a half, Kurdistan has upset Baghdad by signing deals with oil majors such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron, providing lucrative production-sharing contracts and better operating conditions than in Iraq's south.

The KRG says its right to grant contracts to foreign oil firms is enshrined in the Iraqi constitution, drawn up following the 2003 invasion that ousted Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein.

But payments to foreign operators in Kurdistan are caught up in the long-running spat over land and petroleum rights.

Baghdad said last month it would not pay oil firms operating in Kurdistan because the region had failed to export the volume of crude it pledged under a deal struck in September.

That agreement stipulated that Kurdistan would pump crude through the Baghdad-controlled Iraq-Turkey pipeline in return for payment. An export target of 200,000 bpd was set for the last two months of 2012, and Kurdish authorities pledged to raise exports to 250,000 bpd in 2013.

But exports of Kurdish oil have been halted since around mid-December, after nearing the 200,000 target early in the month.

Baghdad transferred an initial sum of 650 billion Iraqi dinars ($560 million) to the KRG. But a second payment is still pending for the foreign companies in Kurdistan.
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FOREX-Euro and dollar slip versus yen, falls seen limited

05:30 |


* Dollar/yen pressured by profit-taking

* Support for dollar at around 86.52 yen, Jan. 1 low

* Euro to remain firm vs dollar ahead of ECB meeting

By Anooja Debnath

LONDON, Jan 8 (Reuters) - The dollar and the euro fell against the yen on Tuesday as investors took profit on recent gains against the Japanese currency triggered by anticipation of looser monetary policy in Japan.

Analysts and traders said the yen had scope to rebound further in the coming days, although the prospect of the Bank of Japan adopting an easing monetary policy soon would limit any gains.

The dollar fell to a session low of 87.23 yen as investors booked profits on its rally of nearly 12 percent over about two months which saw it touch 88.48 yen, its highest level since July 2010.

It was last down 0.4 percent at 87.49 yen, with solid support expected at around 86.52 yen, the low hit on Jan. 1.

The dollar has rallied against the yen since Japan's newly- elected government said it would push the Bank of Japan headed by GovernorMasaaki Shirakawa to adopt more forceful monetary stimulus measures.

But analysts said investors were nervous of pushing the yen too much lower due to the risk the BOJ may not opt for aggressive stimulus as early as its next meeting on Jan. 21-22.

"We still have Shirakawa (as BOJ governor) who is not leaving until end of March so there is a risk of disappointment," said Chris Turner, head of FX strategy at ING.

He said that while the dollar could see shallow corrections, it was unlikely to fall much below 86 yen as there had been "a major reversal in dollar/yen trend" due to expectations of more easing.

Earlier on Tuesday the euro gained against the yen after JapaneseFinance Minister Taro Aso said the government would buy bonds issued by the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the euro zone's permanent bailout fund. The move was seen having little impact on the yen.

The euro was last down 0.3 percent on the day at 114.80 yen, having earlier hit a session high of 115.25 yen after the Aso comments. It stayed below an 18-month high of 115.995 yen set on Jan. 2 on trading platform EBS.

Strategists said the decision would have little impact on the yen as Japan would most likely buy ESM bonds using existing foreign reserves.

"Japan's comments helped euro and dollar/yen a bit higher at first. But then everyone realised they are just going to use current reserves so there should actually be no impact," said Geoff Kendrick, FX strategist at Nomura.

"We will perhaps see a marginal retracement (in dollar/yen) over the next couple days and I'd be slightly more bearish dollar over the next few days ... on profit-taking," Kendrick said.


EURO MOVES

The euro was flat on the day against the dollar at $1.3114 , above a three-week low of $1.2998 set on Friday. Chart support was cited just below $1.30, near its 50- and 55-day moving averages.

Markets are positioned for the European Central Bank to keep rates on hold when they meet this Thursday.

With no significant economic data due on Tuesday, the euro would stay in a range ahead of the ECB meeting and Spanish and Italian bond auctions towards the end of the week.

However, any hint by ECB policymakers about future interest rate cuts could undermine the currency.

"Markets have backed away from peripheral issues in Europe for now and unless we start to get broader concerns, euro/dollar will continue to trade sideways for now," Nomura's Kendrick said.
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Euro fails to hold Japan-inspired gains

05:24 |


By William L. Watts and V. Phani Kumar, MarketWatch
FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) — The euro was unable to hang on to modest gains scored against the dollar Tuesday after Japan’s finance minister said Tokyo would use part of its foreign-exchange reserves to buy bonds issued by the European Stability Mechanism, the euro zone’s bailout fund.
The ICE dollar index DXY +0.23% , which measures the greenback against a basket of six major global currencies, traded at 80.329 compared to 80.256 in U.S. trading late Monday.

Illegal immigrants flood Greece

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The euro EURUSD -0.20% slipped to $1.3096 from $1.3111.
The currency had traded as high as $1.3140 after Japan Finance Minister Taro Aso expressed an interest in buying ESM bonds, with the first round of purchases likely to take place later in the day. Read more on Aso’s comments .
“Using existing [Japan foreign exchange] reserves would have no implications for [the yen,] and we would interpret the comments as more of a euro/dollar-positive event to the extent that it reinforces the trend of reserve diversification into ESM bonds and away from the [dollar],” Sue Trinh, a senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a note to clients.
The euro appears largely content to trade in a tight range ahead of the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday. Expectations for a rate cut have faded amid signs the region’s economic downturn showed signs of bottoming in the fourth quarter.
Overall, data remains largely biased to the downside, however, noted Jeremy Stretch, currency strategist at CIBC in London.
“On the back of disappointing trade data in France and Germany, weaker exports and imports, and a more modest bounce in euro business sentiment in December underline that once U.S. fiscal issues are cleared the lack of euro growth and the negative implications for the debt story are likely to come back to the fore,” he said in a note to clients.
Meanwhile, the Japanese yen appreciated against the dollar and the euro. Media reports cited government ministers as saying that Tokyo will make a 2% inflation target part of a new policy accord with the central bank, but added that the accord won’t set a deadline for reaching that target.
Indeed, the yen is “failing to continue to materially depreciate, this as there appears to continue to be a presumption of looking to buy dips,” Stretch said.
The dollar USDJPY -0.24% dropped to ¥87.54 from ¥87.83, while the euro EURJPY -0.44%fell to ¥114.65 from ¥115.12.
Among other major currencies, the British pound GBPUSD -0.28% was changing hands at $1.6073 from $1.6109, while the Australian dollar AUDUSD -0.09% was fetching $1.0495 from $1.0503. 

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