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Hearing 2-way interest in USD/JPY, EUR/JPY from Japanese banks. Talk Japanese exporters, Tokyo names sold USD/JPY, EUR/JPY again. USD/JPY hit 82.59-60 lows, while EUR/JPY dipped toward 110 lows. Still talks of more waves of Japanese Cross/JPY sales - linked to "last minute" JPY repatriation ahead of March 31 book close. Though today's Value Spot is already April 2 2012 for FY12/13.
Talks good options related bids at 82.50-55, possibly ahead of 82.50/82.00 option expiries. But stoploss below 82.45-50. and below 81.90 level. 1-m Vols levels up at 10.165%, above key 10% again, from 9.975%. Levels at 9.94/10.39%. R/r -0.23/0.085%. 3-m Vols 10.285/10.690%, r/r -0.095%/0.185%.
EUR/JPY looking heavy, with stoploss below yesterday's lows of 109.98. AUD, AUD/JPY led sales on raising expectations that RBA may cut Cash Rate of 4.25% next Tuesday. AUD/USD at 1.0357-60 after stops hit below 1.0350 to 1.0341. AUD/JPY lower at 85.55-60 from 86 handle, huge stops below 85.00. WL
Forex - AUD/SGD, AUD/USD Flows: AUD/Crosses sold on RBA rate cut talks; 1.03 Options
01:21 (GMT) 29 Mar
[Forex Flows]
AUD/USD under pressure on increased expectations that RBA may cut Cash Rate of 4.25% at its RBA Board meeting next Tuesday, April 3. RBA Watcher Terry McCrann : The chance of a rate cut next week is at least 50-50; and in my judgment is actually the more likely outcome.
On FX, markets pricing in more RBA rate cuts over next 12-months, now -72bps, from -68bps earlier and -61 yesterday. AUD/USD support at 1.0350-60, speculation of options related, Aussie corporates, miners, real money and sovereign bids, Asian Cbs (2-way interest) and possibly Swiss, Russian, East Europeans on dips to 1.0300-10. But hearing stops below 1.0345-50, and huge option barriers at 1.0310/1.0300. 1-m Aussie Vols levels last seen around 10.75%, from 10.8025%. Levels at 10.505/10.995%. R/r -2.05/-1.705%. 3-m Vols 11.65/12.15%, r/r -3.375/-2.475%.
Markets pricing for break of Parity. Huge stoploss below Parity and below 0.9800 - given talks that investors have been good sellers of AUD/USD puts, taking in premiums - on expectations that AUD/USD will not fall too sharply below Parity. Good to watch. AUD/SGD - a favourite amongst investors - looking vulnerable to break of key 1.3000 - which will open door for 1.2500. Likely to hear huge stoploss below. AUD/SGD hit 3-m lows of 1.3020-30 yest, low since Dec 20 1.2930. USD/SGD 1.2585-90, in range of 1.2500-1.2700 on the wide ahead of MAS Semi-annual policy. WL
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