Housing starts was historically correlated with gold price –
as housing starts decreased, gold prices tended to rise the next day (even when
controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the previous report, the adjusted
annual rate reached 754,000 in July 2012, which was 1.1% below June's rate; on
the other hand building permits rose by 6.8% (M-o-M) in the adjusted annual
rate of building permits and reached 812,000 in July.
Thursday: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey: In the previous
August survey, the growth rate rose from -12.9 in July to -7.1 in August. If
the index will remain negative it may adversely affect not only U.S Dollar but
also American stock indexes, and commodities;
Thursday: ECB President Speech: Mario Draghi is likely to
refer to the recent German Court ruling, and he may also refer to the future
monetary steps the ECB will take in order to jump start the EU economy and
lower the borrowing costs of the struggling EU economies such as Spain and
Italy. This speech might affect the Euro to US dollar exchange rate;
In conclusion, I guess gold and silver will continue to rise
on a weekly scale but at an even slower pace then they did during recent weeks.
The hike in bullion rate on Thursday, mainly due to announcement of the FOMC to
launch QE3 is likely to have some lingering effects on the prices of bullion.
Further, the positive news from Europe regarding the German Courts to approve
the bailout helped the recovery of the Euro and consequently also rallied
commodities. The upcoming ECB President speech could also affect the Euro. The
upcoming interest rate decisions by Japanese Bank could affect the forex
markets if the bank will change the rate or expand its monetary easing plan.
The main U.S reports of the week will be the U.S Philly Fed survey, housing starts,
existing home sales and jobless claims. If these reports will show growth, this
could rally the commodities and stocks markets. The Chinese manufacturing
survey could adversely affect commodities rates if the index will further fall.
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