Cross Assets Analysis Suggests That A Weaker EUR/USD Is A Done Deal

08:31 |

The disconnect suggests that the EUR/USD should be around 1.28. The problem is, gold already sent several wrong signal in October and December 2012.
Any negative feelings on the EUR/USD should be accompanied by a similar vision (bearish) on the S&P 500. The correlation is good, as can be seen in the chart below, and the disconnect is only recent and limited.

Continue read ... click follwing http://seekingalpha.com/article/1206361-cross-assets-analysis-suggests-that-a-weaker-eur-usd-is-a-done-deal?source=yahoo
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G20 exchange rate policies need to be better aligned: U.S. official

05:31 |

MOSCOW (Reuters) - There is better understanding among Group of 20 nations that the foreign exchange rate systems of the world's largest economies need to be better aligned, a senior U.S. administration official said on Saturday after G20 finance leaders met in Moscow.
While the Group of Seven industrialized countries - the United States, Britain, Italy, Germany, Japan, France and Canada - have long-standing rules on exchange rates, the newer G20 of emerging and advanced economies, including China, India and Brazil, is still trying to develop a set of common standards, the official said.
The G20 meeting committed to move more rapidly toward more market exchange rate systems and to refrain from competitive devaluation.
The wording of the final statement was closely followed given concerns that Japan is targeting a weaker yen in its aggressive expansive monetary and fiscal policies, which have driven down its currency.
G20 currency tensions are not new. The United States has long pressed China to reform its exchange rate regime by allowing market forces to play a larger role in managing the economy.
The U.S. administration official said G20 discussions were focused more on currency frameworks than on a particular country's policies.
Meanwhile, the official said the United States was on target to meet a pledge by advanced economies at the G20 in Toronto in 2010 to halve their budget deficits by 2013. With the pact set to expire this year, some countries like Germany want the G20 to set new debt-cutting targets.
The U.S. official said the Moscow meeting wanted to avoid any commitment that there is a one-size-fits-all pace of fiscal consolidation. However, the official said the United States was comfortable with the way the fiscal consolidation effort was being discussed by the G20.
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Yen Falls 2nd Day as Abe Urges BOJ on Inflation Target

23:12 |


The yen weakened for a second day and neared a 2 1/2 year-low against the dollar after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe urged Bank of Japan (8301) Governor Masaaki Shirakawa to double the central bank’s inflation goal.
Shirakawa said yesterday the BOJ was in close cooperation with the government, raising speculation policy makers will boost stimulus when they meet Jan. 21-22. Japan’s currency slid against all of its major peers before data forecast to show the nation’s trade deficit widened. The euro remained lower before the European Central Bank meets today CONTINUE READ CLICK, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-09/yen-weakens-for-second-day-as-abe-urges-boj-on-inflation-target.html?cmpid=yhoo 
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Shenhua Energy Leads China Coal Stocks Lower as Equities Swing

23:05 |


Chinese stocks swung between gains and losses as declines by energy companies overshadowed gains by industrial companies.
China Shenhua Energy Co. and China Coal Energy Co. led coal producers lower. China Cosco Holdings Co. (601919), the world’s largest operator of dry-bulk ships, advanced 1.8 percent as better-than- estimated export data raised speculation demand for marine transport will rise.... CONTINUE READ, CLICK http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-10/china-s-stock-futures-rise-before-trade-data-baoshan-may-gain.html?cmpid=yhoo
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Noble to Lift Aspire Stake to Increase Mongolia Coal Shipments

22:59 |


Noble Group Ltd. (NOBL), Asia’s biggest listed commodity supplier, agreed to boost its stake inAspire Mining Ltd. (AKM) and to help fund the explorer’s railway in northern Mongolia as seeks to expand coal shipments from the nation.
The Hong Kong-based trader will pay A$2.8 million ($2.9 million), or 8 cents a share, to increase its holding to 15 percent from 10 percent, Perth-based Aspire said today in a statement. Noble will also pay 10 percent of pre-development costs for a railway that will link Aspire’s coal mine to the existing Trans-Mongolian rail line, Aspire said.... CONTINUE READ,CLICK http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-10/noble-to-lift-aspire-stake-to-increase-mongolia-coal-shipments.html?cmpid=yhoo
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FOREX-Yen near 2-1/2-year low, Aussie up on strong China data

22:49 |


* BOJ easing expectations keep hammering yen

* Some market players wary of correction in yen

China Dec exports up 14.1%, boosts Aussie/yen to 4-yr high

* Euro near 3-week low, ECB seen holding rates steady

* Yen down 0.3%, euro falls 0.2%, Aussie up 0.3% vs USD

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, Jan 10 (Reuters) - The yen was on the defensive near a 2-1/2-year low on Thursday on expectations the Bank of Japan will take fresh measures to boost the economy, while the Australian dollar jumped after stronger-than-expected Chinese trade data.

The euro dipped as traders looked to the European Central Bank's policy meeting later in the day to see a rate cut is in the offing.

The yen lost 0.3 percent to 88.15 yen to the dollar, edging near a 2-1/2-year low of 88.48 yen hit last Friday, and giving up most of its gains earlier this week.

"I just see a tremendous amount of pressure on the yen at the moment. If the previous low is broken, then the next target will be 90," said a trader at a Japanese bank.

Price action could become volatile as the BOJ's Jan. 21-22 policy meeting nears, as seen in the yen's roughly 1.2 percent rebound from that low earlier this week.

"It's about time for a correction to set in after a big fall in the yen. Short-term players will likely take profits as soon as the yen stops falling," said Teppei Ino, currency strategist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

"But then again, there's also chance that expectations of BOJ easing could keep the yen under pressure until the bank's policy meeting," he added.

The bank is widely expected to heed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's call for adopting a 2 percent inflation target at its next policy meeting.

Expectations that Abe would push the BOJ to adopt more forceful monetary stimulus measures have driven the yen sharply lower in recent months, boosting the dollar by nearly 12 percent against the yen since early November.

The yen extended its losses against the Australian dollar to hit a four-year low, as the Aussie jumped following a surprisingly strong Chinese trade data. Australia tends to benefit from Chinese demand for raw materials.

The Australian dollar rose to as high as 93.03 yen , its highest since Sept 2008, after data showed Chinese December exports grew 14.1 percent from a year earlier, more than triple the economists' forecast in December. Imports growth was double the market expectations.

Against the U.S. dollar, the Aussie gained 0.3 percent to $1.0540, having hit a three-week high of $1.0554 at one point.


RATE CUT TALK?

Further signs of recovery in China failed to lift the risk-sensitive euro, as traders focused on the ECB meeting.

The central bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold at its first policy meeting of the year on Thursday, but some market players think the bank may cut them some time in coming months and that the bank's chief, Mario Draghi, may drop hints of that in his news conference at 1330 GMT.

"The market has already priced in some chance of Draghi hinting at a rate cut down the road. So if he doesn't, the euro could be bought back," said the Japanese bank trader.

The euro fell 0.2 percent so far on Thursday to $1.3043 , edging closer to a three-week low of $1.2998 hit last Friday.

The British pound was also listless near a six-week low against the dollar hit on Wednesday partly on speculation the Bank of England could go for a surprise easing at its meeting on Thursday, although most analysts expect the bank to stand pat.

The pound dipped 0.1 percent to $1.6010, near Wednesday's low of $1.5992. Sterling has been hit by a string of weak UK economic data, including Tuesday's retail sales data.
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Asian Stocks Advance on China Trade as Yen Weakens; Crude Gains

22:42 | ,


Asian stocks rose to a 17-month high after China’s exports grew more than estimated and investors speculated Japan will expand stimulus. Commodities advanced, while the yen neared a 2 ½-year low against the dollar.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) climbed 0.8 percent at 2:39 p.m. in Tokyo. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.3 percent. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 0.8 percent as the yen weakened against all its major peers. The euro retreated 0.2 percent versus the greenback before the European Central Bank meets to review borrowing costs today. Crude advanced 0.4 percent in New York and aluminum rose for a fourth day. Yuan forwards strengthened the most in a year.
Pedestrians walk past the Bank of Japan headquarters in Tokyo, Japan. Photographer: Akio Kon/Bloomberg
China’s overseas sales rose 14.1 percent in December from a year earlier, almost triple the 5 percent gain predicted in a Bloomberg analyst survey, data showed today. Bank of JapanGovernor Masaaki Shirakawa said yesterday the central bank was in close cooperation with the government, spurring speculation policy makers will boost asset purchases when they meet Jan. 21-22. The ECB will probably keep its main refinancing rate at a record-low 0.75 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey.
“The Chinese data is a whole lot better than anyone expected,” said Mike Jones, a currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand in Wellington. “That will only add to recent investor optimism that the Chinese rebound has got legs.”
More than two stocks rose for each that fell on MSCI’s Asian gauge, with technology and financial companies leading the advance. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) climbed 0.9 percent to its highest level since June 2011, while the Shanghai Composite Index added 0.5 percent. The Philippine Stock Exchange Index lost 1 percent, retreating from a record.

Mazda Upgrade

Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. jumped 8.9 percent in Hong Kong, heading for its biggest advance since October 2011. Mazda Motor Corp. (7261) rallied 10 percent, leading gains among Japanese automakers, after Bank of America raised its rating on the stock to buy. Korea Electric Power Corp., which supplies all of South Korea’s electricity, rose 3.8 percent in Seoul trading after increasing power tariffs.
The S&P 500 advanced 0.3 percent yesterday. Fourth-quarter profit at companies in the index probably increased 2.9 percent, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg, extending a three-year expansion while marking the second-slowest quarterly growth since 2009.
The Japanese currency weakened 0.3 percent to 88.16 per dollar from yesterday, when it slid 0.9 percent, after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe urged the BOJ to double its inflation goal. The yen touched 88.41 on Jan. 4, the lowest level since July 2010. The yen declined 0.2 percent to 114.98 per euro, while the 17-nation shared currency lost 0.2 percent to $1.3041.

‘Economic Recovery’

“The Japanese government’s economic policy can prompt a sustained improvement in investor sentiment by weakening the yen before the recovery in the U.S. economy becomes definite,” said Naoki Kamiyama, an equity strategist at Bank of America Corp. in Tokyo. “It is a way to engineer an economic recovery.”
The Australian dollar climbed 0.4 percent to $1.0552 after touching $1.0555, its strongest since Dec. 18. Twelve-month yuan forwards strengthened 0.4 percent to 6.2763 per dollar in Hong Kong, the biggest gain since Jan. 18, 2012. The spot rate was 0.05 percent higher at 6.2228 in Shanghai, near a 19-year high of 6.2216 reached yesterday.
Chinese imports grew 6 percent after being unchanged in the previous month. The trade surplus almost doubled from a year earlier to $31.6 billion. The U.S. replaced the European Union last year as China’s largest export market, Zheng Yuesheng, head of customs statistics, said at a briefing today.

Treasuries Slide

Thirty-year Treasuries have almost wiped out 2012’s returns as investors prepared to bid at today’s $13 billion auction of the securities. U.S. 30-year bonds have handed investors a 2.3 percent loss in January as of yesterday, eroding last year’s 2.5 percent gain, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. Thirty-year yields rose 0.2 basis points to 3.08 percent today.
Crude futures rose to $93.52 a barrel from $93.10 in New York. Copper for delivery in three months advanced 0.3 percent to $8,105.25 a metric ton in London, while aluminum added 0.7 percent to $2,090 a ton. Lead and zinc gained 0.7 percent.
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