Dollar rises as ECB hopes fade

12:52 |


The dollar rose against most other currencies Thursday as traders wait to hear what the European Central Bank will do to help the region's economy.
Traders also bought the dollar on positive U.S. jobs data.
A member of the central bank's governing council said Thursday that the bank may soon buy bonds to lower borrowing costs for struggling countries. That plan would help countries like Italy and Spain, whose high borrowing rates make it hard for them to manage their debts.
Despite the comments, traders are disappointed that no concrete plans have been made. Mario Draghi, president of the ECB, mentioned a plan to buy bonds last week but offered few details.
The euro fell to $1.2296 from $1.2356. The British pound fell to $1.5635 from $1.5650.
In the U.S., the Labor Department said that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits last week fell by 6,000 to 361,000. That's a sign that the job market is slightly improving.
The dollar rose to 78.57 Japanese yen from 78.52 yen and to 0.9768 Swiss franc from 0.9723 Swiss franc.
The dollar fell to 99.21 Canadian cents from 99.52 Canadian cents.
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Aussie Near Four-Month High On Domestic Economy Optimism

12:51 |


Australia’s dollar was 0.6 percent from its highest level in more than four months after data showed home-loan approvals rose in June by the most this year, adding to signs of improvement in the economy.
New Zealand’s so-called kiwi dollar declined against all of its major peers for a second day after Prime Minister John Key said there may be scope for the central bank to lower borrowing costs. Demand for both South Pacific nations’ currencies was tempered before data that may show weakness in German industrial production and Chinese retail sales, adding to concern the global economy is slowing.
“The domestic story is positive” in Australia, said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist atWestpac Banking Corp. (WBC) in Sydney. “There are certainly reasons to be concerned about the global situation. But in general right now, it doesn’t seem to be a very clever time to be trying to short the Aussie dollar.” A short position is a bet an asset may decline.
The Australian dollar was at $1.0545 as of 4:10 p.m. in Sydney from $1.0554 yesterday, when it reached $1.0604, the strongest since March 20. It slid 0.4 percent to 82.68 yen. The kiwi lost 0.4 percent to 81.25 U.S. cents. It declined 0.7 percent to 63.72 yen.

Australian Economy

The number of loans granted to build or buy houses and apartments in Australia climbed 1.3 percent in June after a revised 0.9 percent drop in the the previous month, the Bureau of Statistics said today. That’s the biggest gain since December and compares with economist forecasts for a 2 percent advance.
Figures tomorrow may show the number of people employed increased by 10,000 last month after dropping 27,000 in June, according to forecasts in a separate poll. The jobless rate probably climbed to 5.3 percent from 5.2 percent.
The Aussie has advanced 5.7 percent in the past three months, the best performance among the 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The kiwi was the second-biggest gainer, rising 4.5 percent.
Ten-year government note yields in Australia rose seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 3.33 percent. New Zealand’s two-year swap rate, a fixed payment made to receive floating rates, lost five basis points to 2.84 percent.
The New Zealand dollar weakened after Prime Minister Key signaled yesterday that the onus is on the nation’s central bank and private investors to aid economic growth as he seeks to eliminate a budget deficit.
“The government’s preferred position is not to be stimulatory,” he said in an interview in Christchurch. “We want to get back to surplus.”
German industrial production may have fallen 0.8 percent in June after rising 1.6 percent in the previous month, according to another survey before figures due today. A report tomorrow may show retail sales growth in China decelerated to 13.5 percent in July from a year earlier from 13.7 percent in June. That would be the slowest pace since February last year.
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NZDUSD: Trading the New Zealand Employment Report

12:44 |


Trading the News: New Zealand Employment Change
What’s Expected:
Time of release: 08/08/2012 22:45 GMT, 18:45 EDT
Primary Pair Impact: NZDUSD
Expected: 0.4%
Previous: 0.4%
DailyFX Forecast: 0.4% to 0.5%
Why Is This Event Important:
Job growth in New Zealand is projected to increase another 0.4% during the three-months through June and the ongoing improvement in the labor market may spark a bullish reaction in the NZDUSD as it dampens speculation for lower borrowing costs. Indeed, Prime Minister John Key said the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has scope to lower the benchmark interest rate further amid the slowdown in the global economy, but we may see Governor Alan Bollard continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach throughout the remainder of the year as the economic activity picks up.
Recent Economic Developments
The Upside
Release
Expected
Actual
Trade Balance (JUN)
2M
331M
NBNZ Business Confidence (JUL)
--
15.1
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q)
0.4%
1.1%
The Downside
Release
Expected
Actual
Building Permits (MoM) (JUN)
7.3%
5.7%
ANZ Job Ads (MoM) (JUN)
--
-1.4%
Retail Sales ex Inflation (QoQ) (1Q F)
--
-0.6%
The rebound in business confidence paired with the pickup in economic activity may encourage firms to ramp up on hiring, and a large pickup in employment may lead the NZDUSD to retrace the decline from earlier this week as it dampens expectations for a rate cut. However, the protracted recovery in the housing market along with the slowdown in private sector consumption may drag on the labor market, and a dismal print may trigger a sharp selloff in the exchange rate as it opens the door for additional monetary support.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
NZDUSD_Trading_the_New_Zealand_Employment_Report_body_ScreenShot067.png, NZDUSD: Trading the New Zealand Employment Report
As the NZDUSD breaks out of the downward trend carried over from 2011, a positive development may produce fresh monthly highs in the exchange rate, and we may see the ascending channel continue to take shape as interest rate expectations pick up. However, should the print fall short of market expectations, bets for a rate cut may push the kiwi-dollar back towards the 10-Day SMA (0.8112), and the pair may ultimately carve out a lower top in August as the relative strength index continues to find resistance around the 67 figure.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Projections for a faster rate of job growth certainly instills a bullish outlook for the kiwi, and a positive development may pave the way for a long New Zealand dollar trade as it raises the outlook for the region. Therefore, if employment increases 0.4% or greater in the second quarter, we will need a green, five-minute candle following the report to generate a buy entry on two-lots of NZDUSD. Once these conditions are fulfilled, we will place the initial stop at the nearby swing low or a reasonable distance from the entry, and this risk will establish our first target. The second objective will be based on discretion, and we will move the stop on the second lot to cost once the first trade hits its mark in an effort to preserve our profits.
On the other hand, the ongoing slack within the real economy paired with the slowdown in private sector consumption may push businesses to scale back on hiring, and a dismal print may trigger a sharp decline in the exchange rate as it appears to be carving a lower top in August. As a result, if the employment report misses market forecast, we will implement the same strategy for a short kiwi-dollar trade as the long position mentioned above, just in the opposite direction.
Impact the New Zealand Employment report has had over the NZD during the last quarter
Period
Data Released
Estimate
Actual
Pips Change
(1 Hour post event )
Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
1Q 2012
05/02/2012 22:45 GMT
0.3%
0.4%
+4
-69
1Q 2012 New Zealand Employment Change
NZDUSD_Trading_the_New_Zealand_Employment_Report_body_ScreenShot062.png, NZDUSD: Trading the New Zealand Employment Report
New Zealand employment increased another 0.4% in the first quarter following the 0.2% expansion during the three-months through December, while the jobless rate unexpectedly climbed to 6.7% from a revised 6.4% as discouraged workers returned to the labor force. The initial reaction to the employment report was short-lived, with the NZDUSD quickly bouncing back from 0.8038, but the high-yielding currency struggled to hold its ground throughout the day as the pair closed at 0.7995.
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Euro slips versus dollar after weak German data

12:38 |


* German imports, industrial output fall in June
    * Prospect of ECB action to help Spain, Italy limits decline
    * Sterling advances after BoE inflation report


    By Wanfeng Zhou
    NEW YORK, Aug 8 (Reuters) - The euro edged lower against the
dollar on Wednesday, pressured by soft German economic data, but
losses were limited by hopes the European Central Bank may soon
take action to lower Spanish and Italian borrowing costs.
    Adding to pressure on the euro were comments from Eurogroup
President Jean-Claude Juncker that a Greek exit from the euro
zone would be manageable but is not desirable. 
    Industrial output in Germany, the euro zone's biggest
economy, fell more than expected in June. Separate data showed
German imports fell in June for the second time in three months,
and exports also dropped. 
    "The reports reminded investors that regardless of what the
ECB does to bring down government borrowing costs, the real
economies of Europe, even Germany's, continue to decline," said
Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign
Exchange in Washington.
    The euro fell 0.4 percent to $1.2355, after hitting a
one-month high of $1.2443 on Monday. It hit a session low of
$1.2325 after dropping past reported stop-loss orders at
$1.2350, before recovering slightly.
    Traders said the euro's outlook remained positive on the
daily charts for as long as $1.2132 minor support holds, which
is this month's low.
    The euro zone common currency has staged a rebound since
hitting a more than two-year low of $1.2040 late last month
after ECB President Mario Draghi said the bank would do whatever
it takes to save the euro.
    Since Draghi's comments, "volatility has been pushed lower
and EUR is well supported. We would expect the euro to fall
within a broad range between $1.21 and $1.26, with a catalyst
for a breakout only emerging in September," said Camilla Sutton,
chief currency strategist at Scotia Bank in Toronto.
    The euro also fell against sterling, which rallied
 after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King appeared
cautious about future interest rate cuts, surprising investors.
The euro last traded down 0.6 percent at 78.85 pence.
    Against the dollar, sterling reversed earlier losses to hit
a session high of $1.5677. It was last up 0.2 percent
at $1.5653. Traders had sold the pound in recent days on
expectations that downbeat BoE forecasts would lead speculators
to position for more monetary easing.       
    The BoE slashed inflation and growth forecasts in its
Quarterly Inflation Report as the euro zone crisis continued to
take a toll. 
    The dollar slid 0.2 percent to 78.45 yen. The euro
lost 0.6 percent to 96.86 yen.
    The dollar has stayed in a range between 77.90 and 78.80 yen
for the past two weeks. But analysts said expectations of more
U.S. monetary easing may hurt the dollar.
    Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren, who is
known to favor a more activist approach to stimulating growth,
said on Tuesday the Federal Reserve should launch another
bond-buying program of whatever size and duration was necessary
to get the economy back on its feet. 
    Traders also said there was potential for fund repatriation
by Japanese institutional investors, which could also weigh on
the dollar against the yen in the near term.
    August typically sees large bond redemptions in U.S.
Treasuries as well as coupon payments, and traders say Japanese
investors holding Treasuries could potentially sell the dollar
against the yen to bring home some of the proceeds.
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Peru's central bank bought $3 million, sol ends flat

12:36 |

Peru's central bank bought $3 million in the local spot market on Wednesday to offset a strengthening sol <P EN=PE> cu rrency, which ended bidding flat at a 15-year high of 2.616 per dollar.
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Standard Chartered Faces N.Y. Suspension Over Iran Deals

22:23 |


Jerome Favre/Bloomberg
The Standard Chartered Plc. logo is displayed outside the company's headquarters in Hong Kong.
Standard Chartered Plc conducted $250 billion of transactions with Iranian banks over seven years in violation of federal money laundering laws, a New York regulator said in an order warning that the firm’s U.S. unit may be suspended from doing business in the state.
Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Ralph Silva, director of Silva Research Network, talks about money-laundering charges against Standard Chartered Plc. New York's Department of Financial Services accused the London-based bank of conducting $250 billion of transactions with Iranian banks over seven years in violation of federal laws. Silva speaks with Linzie Janis on Bloomberg Television's "On the Move." (Source: Bloomberg)
Standard Chartered said in a statement that 99.9 percent of its transactions with Iran complied with U.S. Treasury regulations. Photographer: Matthew Lloyd/Bloomberg
Standard Chartered Plc Chief Executive Officer Peter Sands said Aug. 1, “As a source of competitive advantage, as the ultimate protection against risk, our culture and values are our first and last line of defense.” Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
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Standard Chartered earned hundreds of millions of dollars in fees for handling transactions on behalf of Iranian institutions that are subject to U.S. economic sanctions, New York’s Department of Financial Services said yesterday. The London-based bank, which generates almost 90 percent of its profit and revenue in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, was ordered by the regulator to hire an independent, on-site monitor to oversee operations in the state.
When the head of the bank’s U.S. unit warned his superiors inLondon in 2006 that Standard Chartered’s actions could expose it to “catastrophic reputational damage,” he received a reply referring to U.S. employees with an obscenity, according to the order.
“Who are you to tell us, the rest of the world, that we’re not going to deal with Iranians?” a bank superior in London said, according to the New York regulatory order.
Standard Chartered fell as much as 14 percent in London trading and was down 13 percent at 1,273 pence as of 8:06 a.m. today, heading for the biggest decline in almost four years. The shares had risen 11 percent this year before yesterday, making it the third-best performing British bank stock after Lloyds Banking Group Plc and HSBC Holdings Plc. (HSBA)

‘Strongly Rejects’

The bank said in a statement that 99.9 percent of its transactions with Iran complied with U.S. Treasury regulations, and that the total value of transactions that weren’t in compliance was less than $14 million.
The lender said it “strongly rejects the position and portrayal of facts” made by the state regulator, run by SuperintendentBenjamin Lawsky.
Standard Chartered “had previously reported that it is conducting a review of its historical compliance and is discussing that review with U.S. enforcement agencies,” the bank said in the statement, referring to the Department of Financial Services, the U.S. Justice Department, U.S. Treasury Department, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and New YorkDistrict Attorney.
The lender said it “waived its attorney-client and work product privileges to ensure that all the U.S. agencies would receive all relevant information.”

U.S. Penalties

The loss of its banking license in New York would have a big impact on Standard Chartered’s ability to process dollar payments, said Royal Bank of Canada analysts including Patrick Lee in London, who has an outperform rating on the stock.
“These are very serious penalties,” Lee said in a report to clients today. “Standard Chartered’s U.S. headquarters are in New York, so a revocation of its license would have potentially major implications on its ability to conduct business in the U.S. Similarly, its U.S. dollar clearing operations, the seventh-largest in the world, according to Standard Chartered, would potentially impact its core business trade finance business model.”
The accusations against Standard Chartered are the latest in a series of alleged regulatory transgressions by the New York offices of British banks.
In August 2010, Barclays Plc agreed to pay $298 million to settle claims it violated trade laws by facilitating transactions involving banks from countries under U.S. sanctions including Cuba, Iran, Libya and Sudan.

Concealed Transactions

In 2009, a unit of London-based Lloyds accused of allowing Iran illegal access to the U.S. financial system agreed to pay $350 million to settle an investigation by Manhattan District Attorney Robert Morgenthau.
HSBC, also based on London, last month made a $700 million provision for U.S. fines after a Senate committee found the bank gave terrorists, drug cartels and criminals access to the U.S. financial system. That sum may increase, according to Chief Executive Officer Stuart Gulliver.
Senate investigators said HSBC concealed transactions that bypassed U.S. sanctions against Iran.
“It really seems as if they are perfectly prepared to flout whatever sanctions, rules and laws anybody tries to impose on them,” said Sherrill Shaffer, a former senior economist for the New York Fed who’s now a banking professor at the University of Wyoming in Laramie. “It starts to convey a picture that London-based banks have decided that they’re not going to pay attention to U.S. sanctions with regard to their U.S. operations.”

Iran Office

Standard Chartered handled transactions involving Iranian entities such as the Central Bank of Iran, Bank Saderat and Bank Melli, according to the regulator’s order. Lawsky’s agency is also investigating similar transactions between Standard Chartered and entities in other U.S.-sanctioned countries, including Libya, Myanmar and Sudan, according to the filing.
The scandal may cost the bank as much as $5.5 billion in fines, lost revenue and reduction in share price, said Cormac Leech, an analyst at London-based Liberum Capital Ltd. who has a buy rating on the stock.
Standard Chartered opened its Iran office in 1993. Ten years later, the lender said “cross-border trade flows with markets like Turkey, Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran appear to be growing and offer potential to us.”
The bank stopped all new business in Iran in May 2007 and pulled out completely in May 2012.

Wire Transfers

Wire transfers involving Iranian banks are at the heart of Standard Chartered’s alleged misconduct. From 2001 to 2007, according to the order, the bank executed 60,000 wire transfers involving $250 billion through its New York branch.
During this time, the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control, or OFAC, required U.S. banks to identify and filter all dollar-clearing transactions involving financial institutions operating in nations facing U.S. sanctions, including Iran -- even if the transactions were handled by third-party banks.
The goal, according to the Treasury, was to prevent U.S. dollars from being used to finance terrorist organizations and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
Standard Chartered flouted the OFAC rules by “repairing” wire-transfer orders involving its New York branch to remove any reference to the involvement of Iranian banks, according to the New York filing.

‘Rogue Institution’

The alleged conduct occurred over seven years, until OFAC revoked authorization for such third-party transfers in 2008, the state said. The lender continued to hide its actions even after the transfers stopped, according to the regulator, leading to the allegation that it hid the conduct from bank supervisors for almost a decade.
The New York agency alleged that Standard Chartered operated as a “rogue institution” that intentionally withheld information from state and federal regulators regarding its dealings with Iranian clients.
“We remain in close contact with both federal and state authorities on this matter,” said John Sullivan, a Treasury spokesman.
The regulatory order poses a challenge to the bank’s senior executives, said Christopher Wheeler, a Mediobanca SpA analyst in London.
“This is going to prove rather tricky for the management team at Standard Chartered as they have been at the bank” for years, he said. “This has been happening while Peter Sands, Richard Meddings and Mike Rees have been in place.”
Management Change?
Sands was promoted to CEO in November 2006, after four years as finance director. Meddings, who replaced Sands as finance director, was previously director for governance for Africa, Middle East, Pakistan, Europe and the Americas. Mike Rees has been CEO of global banking and markets at Standard Chartered since 2003.
“It’s too early to say who will fall on his sword as it depends on what is found, but it really doesn’t look good,” Wheeler said.
The announcement by Lawsky’s agency came after the bank said last week it was conducting a review of its compliance with sanctions rules.
“The group is conducting a review of its historical U.S. sanctions compliance and is discussing that review with U.S. enforcement agencies and regulators,” Standard Chartered said on Aug. 1 as it reported first-half earnings. “The group cannot predict when this review and these discussions will be completed or what the outcome will be.”

‘Surprise’

Ian Gordon, an analyst at Investec Plc (INVP) in London, said he was surprised by the order. He has a buy rating on the stock.
“I am surprised we are already at this stage when the latest disclosure stated it was an internal review and discussion with authorities,” Gordon said in a telephone interview.
Sands, Standard Chartered’s CEO, praised his bank’s culture in comments to analysts last week.
“We build businesses that deliver a wider social and economic benefit,” Sands said Aug. 1. “As a source of competitive advantage, as the ultimate protection against risk, our culture and values are our first and last line of defense.”
Lawsky ordered representatives of Standard Chartered to appear before his agency Aug. 15 “to demonstrate why SCB’s license to operate in the state of New York should not be revoked.”
Standard Chartered’s New York operation had $40.8 billion of assets at the end of March, according to the New York regulator. By comparison, the bank had $624 billion in assets at the end of June.
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FOREX-Euro steady, underpinned by hopes of ECB action

21:31 |

* Euro steady, hopes for ECB action to help Spain, Italy
* Yen steady after dipping overnight
* Sterling eyes BOE inflation report

SINGAPORE, Aug 8 (Reuters) - The euro held steady against the dollar on Wednesday, supported by persistent hopes for further action by the European Central Bank to lower the borrowing costs of Spain and Italy.
The yen was steady to firmer, after having sagged the previous day as investors continued to favour riskier assets on hopes for ECB action to contain the euro zone's debt crisis.
The euro held steady from late U.S. trade on Tuesday at $1.2395, not too far from a one-month high of $1.2444 hit on Monday on trading platform EBS.
The dollar slipped 0.1 percent versus the yen to 78.52 yen , but hovered near the top of a range between 78.80-77.90 that has largely held for past two weeks.
One factor supporting the dollar against the yen was a rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Both two-year and 10-year U.S. yields have hit one-month highs this week against a backdrop of improving investor appetite for risk.
"Two-year yields have jumped in recent days. I think as long as U.S. yields move higher then of course dollar/yen will be under upward pressure," said Mitul Kotecha, head of global foreign exchange strategy for Credit Agricole in Hong Kong.
Still, the impetus for a further rise in Treasury yields and dollar/yen may be lacking over the next few days, when U.S. economic data releases will be relatively light, he said.
"For bond yields to move higher you need to see some credible signs of U.S. recovery... But the lack of data in the coming days suggests it's not going to happen," Kotecha added.
The potential for fund repatriation by Japanese institutional investors is another factor that may weigh on the dollar against the yen in the near term, traders say.
August is a month that typically sees a large amount of bond redemptions in U.S. Treasuries as well as coupon payments, and traders say Japanese investors holding Treasuries could potentially sell the dollar against the yen to bring home some of the proceeds.
APPETITE FOR RISK
The Australian dollar dipped 0.1 percent to $1.0549 , having hit a four-month high of $1.0604 on Tuesday.
Against the yen, the Aussie dollar eased 0.2 percent to 82.80 yen, but still remained near a three-month high around 83.22 yen hit on Tuesday.
Investors tend to buy the yen and U.S. dollar in times of heightened market stress, but sell them for higher-yielding currencies when there is appetite for risk.
"For now, markets continue to be driven by expectations that a powerful ECB response is looming once the governments come to terms with asking for help," analysts at BNP Paribas wrote in a note, warning currencies remained vulnerable to headline risk amid quiet summer markets.
Sterling held steady at $1.5615, its moves limited ahead of the Bank of England's quarterly inflation report due later on Wednesday.
Analysts say sterling could come under pressure if the Bank of England slashes its growth and inflation forecasts, a move that would bolster expectations for more economic stimulus later this year.
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